What will work be like in the future? In our view, the outlook for the next 50 years calls for cautious optimism.

To build an understanding of what the next five decades may hold in store for workers, BCG engaged with more than 150 futurists through panel discussions and opinion surveys. Contrary to popular fears that the future will offer fewer work opportunities for people, most experts anticipate that rewarding work options will be plentiful. Individuals, organizations, and communities that build new skills will flourish. Economic sectors such as regenerative industries and areas that require strong creativity will offer new paths to sustainability and personal satisfaction.

Public sector organizations and their private sector partners are ideally positioned to maximize the effectiveness of human contributions to prosperity over the next 50 years. Understanding the factors that will affect the 21st-century economy and crafting future-oriented policies will ensure that populations have what they need for shared purpose and success.

Four Boundaries That Frame the Future

Over the next several years, emerging technologies and cultural transformations such as generative AI and the rising influence of younger generations will continue to change the day-to-day experience of workers. It is not inevitable, however, that these large-scale global challenges will leave organizations and communities behind.

Leaders that wish to build employment policies and business strategies to support long-term job creation must respect several boundaries—a term frequently used in discussions of the future—that frame a successful future economy. (See Exhibit 1.) Staying within these boundaries will keep communities in an environment of prosperous job cultivation. Straying outside these limits may lead society to harmful outcomes. The four critical boundaries are as follows:

• Planetary Boundary. This boundary defines the environmental health that sustains humanity and enables it to thrive. Today’s economy violates this boundary with high carbon emissions and unsustainable manufacturing processes, and the situation could get worse. A scenario in which we humans cross this boundary too frequently—or exceed it to such an extent that we reach a point of no return—could cause critical damage to the planet.
• Technological Boundary. With AI evolving at a frenetic pace, the ever-shifting line between safe and hazardous use of technology can be difficult to define. But we must keep our bearings in this terrain. If humanity loses control of its technological assets—including robotics, geo-engineering, and biotechnologies—or misuses them, it risks advancing into a setting where the damage caused becomes irreversible.
• Social Foundation. The world of the future must deliver sufficient vital resources and conditions—water, food, shelter, and peace—to satisfy humanity’s basic needs. If inadequate supplies of these elements weaken society’s economic and infrastructural foundation, the world’s stability will weaken as well.
• Sociocognitive Boundary. When truth, trust, creative expression, and other essential elements sustain our collective mental health, we can make well-informed decisions about our collective future. Fake news, disinformation, and similar trends push humanity beyond this boundary, destroying social cohesion and impeding large-scale collaboration.

The future can sustain promising economic models that thrive within these boundaries, but leaders must understand the key components of such models. We have identified five crucial elements.

Economies need to become circular and nature-friendly to comply with planetary boundaries. The energy transition is a high-visibility example of a worthwhile global effort, however fledgling, to achieve positive climate impact while balancing sustainability and reliability. Shifting to nature-friendly processes is also important. According to research published by the UN in 2021, investing 1% of global GDP in nature-based solutions would allow humanity to better face crises related to climate, biodiversity, and land degradation. For example, construction projects could use biodegradable fungi bricks that are stronger than cement for various construction projects or seaweed-based substitutes for single-use plastic.

Society can lower the risks associated with widespread adoption of a particular technology by choosing smaller, secure production and distribution models. There is a surprising answer to today’s supply chain hassles and excessively large carbon footprints: a do-it-yourself (DIY) model of production. In such a model, a company might sell digital blueprints for 3D printing and DIY assembly of products, but leave it to end users to build the product themselves—instead of supplying fully produced machines, electronics, furniture, and apparel. The results are diminished environmental impact and more flexible supply chains.

Society must stand on a positive social foundation that prioritizes collective flourishing. Innovation is key to ensuring the proper treatment of simple necessities such as food and water. One way to achieve food security is by eliminating avoidable food losses that, according to the UN, amount to 30% of all food produced. Projects such as ZeroW, an initiative dedicated to achieving zero-waste sustainability, encourage businesses to adopt concepts like wasteless greenhouses and smart packaging to produce food profitably while enabling entire populations to flourish.

A strong social foundation also requires human connections, love, and support. The Grant Study, a long-running Harvard University study of children aging into adulthood, found that good personal relationships exert a critical influence on human happiness and physical health. A lack of harmony is damaging to an individual, and it is terribly costly at scale. According to the Institute for Peace & Economics’ Global Peace Index 2023 report suggests that the impact of violence on the global economy in 2022 amounted to $17.5 trillion, or 13% of global GDP. Striving for peace is key. Business-led peacemaking—such as recent corporate commitments to reduce corruption—can serve as an extremely efficient way to boost collective flourishing.

Mental health—and its key component, creativity—should be a sociocognitive priority. Eliminating disinformation is an urgent mission around the world. But multiple studies from agencies such as the US National Institutes of Health suggest that artistic expression and craftwork can have a significant favorable impact on mental health as well. A creative economic sector will offer people ways to express themselves, communicate feelings, and connect with each other. For example, city dwellers might spend their Saturday afternoons making music or art in community settings instead of shopping. When scaled, the benefits of such a sector, including heightened interconnectedness and communication, extend throughout an urban economy and beyond.